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Post by President B. Dazzle on Jul 20, 2006 8:52:47 GMT -5
2006-07 Miami Dolphins:
-This is a team with a lot of question marks around it. Notably, will Daunte bounce back from a subpar 2005-06 and will the team pick up the systems of its two new coordinators quickly enough.
-But even with those question marks, this is a team that could go 15-1 if it gets some lucky bounces. Observe:
--Schedule: 2 x NYJ (road game in Sept), 2 x Bills (suck), 2 x Patriots (road game in Sept), 1 x Steelers (Week 1, at Pit, likely loss), 1 x Chiefs, 4 x AFC South (Colts on Week 17), 4 x NFC North.
--So, If Grossman gets hurt and is out for their Nov 5th showdown, and if the Pats FINALLY collapse, and if the Colts clinch before the last week of the season, this is a team that MIGHT only lose the game against the Steelers.
-Now, let's talk reality. They lose @ Steelers, @ Pats, and maybe @ Bears. If the Colts are fighting for their playoff lives, they also lose @ Colts. Factor in dumb luck for one game (likely @ Jets in Sept or @ Bills in Dec), and you're looking at 11-5, which should still be good enough for playoffs, probably 4th seed in AFC. That sets them up against Wild Card 1. At home, they CAN win that game. The next game would be on the road, to the 2nd place division champ. They want to avoid @ Denver at all costs, more or less. They probably bow out in the second round to Denver.
-Bottom line:
--Best case, they click quick on the offense, Daunte has an MVP year, Chris Chambers gives CB's nightmares, and the defense stays good. They get the kinks out of the way against the Steelers, then rack up the wins against the softies. Pats miss last second FG to lose game @ Foxboro in Sept. Rex Grossman gets hurt week before Miami game, and is unable to play. Jets and Bills suck as expected. Colts clinch division around Week 14, rest starters for playoff games. Miami, with NE at heels, wins in the last week to claim #1 seed and round 1 bye. They play @ home for the rest of the playoffs, taking it to Pitt and Indy in the semis and conf. finals, and win the Super Bowl behind MVP Daunte, beating the Giants and giving both Mannings something to stew over in the offseason. Final record: 18-1
--Worst case: They don't really catch on quick to the offense. They struggle early against the Steelers, Pats, and Jets. Pats turn out to be the real deal. Grossman stays healthy for a full year. Jacksonville has a revival, pushing Indy to play their starters in Week 17. Even with all that happening, their schedule is WAY too soft to have a losing record. They beat on the five to eight easy games, win one they're not supposed to (Pats @ home, probably), and end up out of the playoffs in an AFC where San Diego, Kansas City, Baltimore, Pittsburg, and Jacksonville compete fiercely for two playoff spots. Final record: 9-7
--Reality will, of course, fall somewhere in the middle, so I pick OVER on the Vegas picks.
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